Assessing Forest Degradation and Encroachment Patterns in Kafue National Park Using Remote Sensing and GIS

Abstract

Change-detection analysis highlighted significant declines in sparse forest (−72.88%) and wetlands (−73.49%), alongside a substantial increase in bare land (+55.26%). These trends underscore the impact of human activities such as agricultural expansion, logging, and infrastructure development, exacerbated by climate variability. This study investigated forest degradation and encroachment patterns in Kafue National Park, Zambia, over a decade (2014-2024), using remote sensing and Geographic Information Systems (GIS). By analyzing land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes, it identified key drivers of landscape transformation and their consequences for biodiversity conservation and sustainable management. High-resolution Landsat imagery and supervised classification methods were used to map five primary LULC classes—dense forest, sparse forest, water bodies, bare land, and wetland—achieving an overall accuracy of 84%. The findings highlight the need for targeted conservation strategies, community engagement, and policy interventions to curb forest loss and enhance ecosystem resilience. This study provides data driven recommendations to help policymakers integrate conservation efforts with sustainable land-use planning in the region.